Thursday, 26 February 2015

A-League Round 19

Melbourne City v Adelaide United
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Friday, February 27
6.40 PM (AEST)

Melbourne City have won just one of their previous 10 A-League encounters against Adelaide United, so the stats lean towards the Reds to get the three points in this one. The market suggests a close affair, but given Adelaide have been victors in four of their past six visits to Melbourne City, I’m leaning towards Josep Gombau’s attacking and possession based style to get the job done. A win could see them go to the top of the ladder, albeit temporarily, if the Glory and Victory don’t record wins this round. City have plenty of issues scoring goals, and this game could see them go a month without finding the net. Aaron Mooy was the last to do so against WSW back in Round 15.

My tip: Adelaide United Marcello Carrusca a good option in ‘1st Goal Scorer’ ($10.00) or ‘To Score a Goal’ ($3.75) markets given he has scored in three of his last four games against City.

Newcastle United Jets v Central Coast Mariners
Hunter Stadium, Newcastle
Saturday, February 28
4.00 PM (AEST)

The Jets would consider themselves a little unlucky at having to share the points last week against the Phoenix. The season has been filled with disappointments in every aspect, and they are without a win in seven league games. Just as desperate, the Mariners are hoping to avoid three straight losses. The recent history between the F3 rivals favours CCM, as the Jets are winless in seven A-League matches against them (3D & 4L). This game could surprise, as a Derby often seems to bring with it plenty of feeling with bragging rights up for grabs. Unfortunately, this game showcases the two worst defensive teams in the League.

My tip: Draw
Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC
Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta
Saturday, February 28
6.30 PM (AEST)

After a successful week away in Japan for their Asian Champions League Group game, the Wanderers have a quick turn around and host cross-town rivals Sydney FC at Wanderland. The Sky Blues have the wood on the Wanderers after being undefeated in the past thee derbies (W2 D1). The previous four games played in Parramatta have only seen a total of six goals scored, with neither side finding the net more than once. This could well be another low scoring affair, but I think the class and confidence of the Austrian scoring machine, Marc Janko, could prove the match winner. Although keep a close eye on Tomi Juric from WSW, as he has a good record scoring twice against Sydney FC in the A-League.

My tip: Sydney FC H2H; but given the closeness of Derbies, it's worth trying the ‘Over/Under 2.5 Goals’ market with the Under (2.5) ($1.82) good value.

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
nib Stadium, Perth
Saturday, February 28
8.30 PM (AEST)

The Brisbane Roar will be hoping to bounce back quickly after a heartbreaking added time Asian Champions League loss on a very damp Gold Coast pitch against Beijing Guoan. The good news for the Roar is they are chasing a third successive away win. They have also scored in all but one of their last six games against the Glory who have only won just one of their last six clashes with Brisbane. Andy Keogh has been kept quiet on the score sheet of late for the Glory, surprisingly going three games without finding the net. He did however jag a hat trick when they last hosted the Roar at nib stadium back in Round 2.

My tip: Roar H2H are fantastic value. With Perth without a win in five matches, there’s never been a better opportunity for the Roar to record another away win (Brisbane being the best team on the road this season). If you want to be cautious, then the safety of the ‘Draw No Bet’ ($2.55) market is an attractive Multi option.

Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Sunday, March 01
4.00 PM (AEST)

The Victory have a great chance to go to the top of the league ladder if they can continue an impressive record of winning nine of their past ten matches against the Phoenix. This could be a keeper's nightmare given there have been 22 scored in the past five games between these two sides. No team is better at home than the Melbourne Victory this season (7W 1D 1L), so Wellington will need to bring their A game across the ditch, if they want to capture any points at AAMI Park.

My tip: Melbourne Victory H2H; and if Archie Thompson ($3.50) gets the chance to play in his 200th game for the club, then he would be my sentimental favourite in the ‘To Score a Goal’ market, although he’ll need to get in a queue behind Berisha ($1.70), Barbarouses ($2.75) and Ben Khalfallah ($2.75).

I’ll be on @RadioTABAus every Friday and Monday morning around 7:45am AEST over the course of the entire A-league season with my previews and reviews of every game.

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